I'd say your chances of being able to do the pass are extremely high. I've done it several times in winter and have never hear of it being closed, though I guess it must be occasionally. The worst of the snow seems to be in Jan/Feb and affecting the Middle Atlas areas around Ifrane/Azrou and the High Atlas west of Midelt.
Before your trip keep an eye on the Marrakech weather forecast for any signs of rain as would indicate snow at altitude. Marrakech is 450m above sea level, the Test pass is about 2300m (from memory).
And keep an eye on the forecast for forecast for Toubkal at 2500m and check for the snow depth and freezing level.
If there's any problems the snow barriers would be down and you wouldn't be able to cross anyway. Morocco can be really cold, especially at altitude; In winter I always travel with handlebar muffs, electrically heated jacket and sometimes with gauchos as well.
Some photos: http://www.morocco-knowledgebase.net...read.php?t=251


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