Classic Bike Values - Will the bubble burst ?

Leyther

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I am the owner of a few Classic Bikes and have been involved with Classic Bikes for the last 40 years however I am still amazed by the values being paid for bikes.
Today on the site there is a C11 for £3000 , it looks a nice original bike however in its day it was a poor man's commuter for going to work at the steel works or the like!
Most people that remember these are now in the 60's and the Classic Bike owners of the future seem to be the one's who are looking to buy the bikes of the 70's that they drooled over but couldn't afford and I believe there will probably always be a healthy market for the likes of Vincent's / Manx Norton's and the like but will there be customers for the likes of C11's, C15's , James and Franny Barnet's in a few years or will those that remember them bee too old ?
There are a lot of these type of machines about and whilst there is nothing wrong with them they are not exciting , will the market continue to be there for them?
Some of these bikes were never nice to ride and I know that ' Rose Tinted Glasses ' can influence some purchasers and for others there is Nostalgia, I owned for a short spell a R45 I don't want another but perhaps other's would .

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and as my wife tells me ' some women like ugly men '.

Whilst I may come across as very negative , I am going to look at another Norton on Monday just because I want to buy another bike and this is something a bit special and quite highly tuned.

What do you think ?
 
I think the bubble will burst very soon as the justification for the internal combustion engine is being eroded leading up to 2030 when you look at the demographic the owners and enthusiasts in their 60s-70s will be dying out in increasing numbers then the bonnie's. Norton's, Vincent's ect apart from a few examples in museums will become the beer cans/ razor blades they should have been fifty years ago.
 
I think the market will follow the punters

As said, the folks interested in the old British bikes are getting older and rarer

At the moment the 2 strokes and the first UJMs are in fashion as that’s the generation who are now getting nostalgic and have the spare cash

I predicted a couple of years back that the early 90s race reps would be the next lot to become desirable and prices have already started climbing for bikes that were worth peanuts a couple of years ago, 1st generation fireblades, FZR Genesis, oil cooled GSXRs etc.
 
I think there will always be a market and a following for classic vehicles for ever but it will become smaller and only the good examples of desirable models will continue to fetch big money. They are part of our motoring history. There has always been enthusiasts for very old vehicles that were around well before they were born.
 
There will always be a good classic bike market. Obviously the bikes that achieve higher values will change over time. There are however some bikes that will always be high value. At the moment people like us in mid 50’s to mid 60’s are buying the bonnies, commandos, z1’s, H1, and 2’s plus Ducati’s etc etc. These guys have still got 20plus years of life so I don’t think the market for these will drop too much just yet. As lead farmer said, later bikes naturally are now becoming more valuable. I think many bikes are over valued superdreams etc and these will flatten and fall eventually. Some bikes will always be top money vincents are an example, most people who rode those are dead now but values are huge, though mostly due to rarity. From our era, laverda, Ducati, Z1’s and some others will always be valuable basically the iconic bikes from each decade..... just my opinion. Personally I’m into my classics, not just to ride them but I love working on them,but would never buy one as an investment to make money.It is nice though to buy a bike and not lose 40% of the value in a few years......
 
Leadfarmer, Mark and Johno have pretty much already said what I would have done. :thumb

There will always be a classic bike/car market and following, but what sits at the "top of the tree" will vary over the decades.

For instance, the OP cites various Brit bikes as his example, whereas I'm not remotely interested in any of them and wouldn't give them garage space.
 
As previously said the likes of Brough, Vincent and the top end bikes of the sixties will always command top price, they were expensive and rare in their time as now, but the likes of T120 and Commandoes which were more common and cheaper will take a dive as the people who look at them through rose tinted are unfortunately dying and there is no market. It’s like what’s happening now, 50 plus with disposable are buying the bikes they couldn’t afford at the time, but unfortunately if you haven’t a Van Veen or such all the Z1, CB750, KH and forth won’t be worth as much in 20-30 years time as we will have all keeled. As long as they put a smile on your dial as you open your man cave that’s all that matters, remember, you can’t take it with you, enjoy it whilst your here.
 
I don’t think the market is entirely dependant on buyers reliving their youth or buying bikes they coveted in their younger days.

As for utilitarian bikes and cars becoming ‘affordable’ classics - for many these are the only way to own a old vehicle whilst the Vincents and Broughs are only for the well heeled. But, sadly, buyers are such suckers for a bandwagon even old dogs like C11s can be sold for £3k, ridiculous.
 
996R v ???

I sold my 996R for a number of varied reasons but here are some of them/

Yes it’s an iconic bike, and more likely to appeal to a younger generation then mine.

But this is my logic:-
Markets
  • In the not too distant future, alternative fuelled vehicles sales will overtake internal combustion engines.
  • The market will be flooded with cheap cars etc as people change to these new differently powered vehicles
  • This will dilute and may even blur the classic market BUT I suspect that genuine highly sought after vehicles will still be highly sought after bad still demand a premium

Govt policy
  • You’ll always be able to drive fossil fuelled vehicles but you’ll have to pay through the nose for the privilege as Govt policy will be to nudge folks towards new technology through taxes. Incidentally as fossil fuel income recedes electricity etc will also go up in price.
  • The classic vehicle market is very loosely defined, anything from a Honda c90 to a Brough Superior, or from a Ford Cortina 1600e to a Bugatti
  • Traditionally, Govts as well as those who draft rules (esp anything to do with the DVLA) like to pidgeon hole things.
  • An easy thing for them to do would be to use an existing pidgeon hole:- that of the historic classification. (40 years plus)
  • Quite simply, vehicles classed as historic are likely to be close to the front of the queue when concessions are made to fossil fuelled vehicles because they are small in number and travel very few miles P.A. and involve a small number of the population.
  • Precedent for historic vehicles concessions include not requiring vehicle excise licence or a MOT.


All of these IMHO will see a clear difference between much older, historical and iconic vehicles versus newer, nice and desirable but not quite there vehicles.

The 996R, as lovely as it was, was “only” 20 yrs old. The technology was such that it cost an arm and a leg to service and likewise to insure. So a sunny Sunday morning bike it ain’t, unless you have deep pockets.

Hence I hope to replace it with something nearer 40-50 years old, equally as desirable (op to me that is).

Besides, I really fancy a roundcase
 
Road scene is a bit mixed at present - as Tarka says I have no desire to own a British bike
As for the 80’s/90’s and later stuff I am not sure it bothers me to own it
I have a XR400R which is still a nice bike to own and ride & prices for these have gone crazy - maybe be worth cashing in
Old Trials/MX and Enduro bikes from the 1970’s onwards are fetching big prices nowadays and can still be ridden in all manner of competitive events specially organised for these type of bikes
 
Go to the FOS and look at at all the young things riding and driving old stuff.........will always be a market... and I reckon when a 500 Goldie hits £20k a C15 will be £5k... rising tide lifts all boats...
 
I recently sold my DBD34 (to a dealer for a handsome profit) because in Clubman Spec it was impossible to ride :blast

Last year I sold my 888SP5 (to a dealer for a handsome profit) because I wasn't riding it as I was too frightened the motor might grenade itself :augie

Classic motorcycle's are like Bitcoin for people who don't understand Bitcoin :thumb2
 
Getting back to the original question. The market will tank at some stage. These things tend to go in waves. The trick is to predict the ups and downs. When investors enter the market rather than genuine enthusiasts it skewers the real value of the items which pushes up values on a notional value which can’t keep rising till the bubble bursts. JJH
 
I remember watching one of the episodes of Bangers and Crash where Derek said that the prices on pre war cars had dropped because of there being few people left alive who drove them first time round so I think British bikes will suffer a similar fate at some stage.
 
If the market tanks then I’ll just buy another classic that I fancy owning, I’d sooner spend £12-15k on a nice T160 Trident than a similar amount on a 3-4year old GS, at least it’ll make me smile every time I look at it :beerjug:
 
I remember watching one of the episodes of Bangers and Crash where Derek said that the prices on pre war cars had dropped because of there being few people left alive who drove them first time round so I think British bikes will suffer a similar fate at some stage.

There’s no one still alive who rode the original flat tankers yet the market for them is buoyant amongst the genuine enthusiasts. Once the world is flooded with ex pcp 1250s I’m sure everyone will become aware of depreciation free motorcycling without a USB in sight.
 
There’s no one still alive who rode the original flat tankers yet the market for them is buoyant amongst the genuine enthusiasts. Once the world is flooded with ex pcp 1250s I’m sure everyone will become aware of depreciation free motorcycling without a USB in sight.

As has already been said there will alsays be a market for the top end stuff but some of the prices being asked/paid for basic bread and butter brit stuff look unsustainable to me. My mate has just bought a Firestorm in nice condition with 15k miles for £2k. That to me is a far better option but each to their own.
 
If the market tanks then I’ll just buy another classic that I fancy owning, I’d sooner spend £12-15k on a nice T160 Trident than a similar amount on a 3-4year old GS, at least it’ll make me smile every time I look at it :beerjug:

It was the crazy prices being paid for T160 & T150's that sent Triumph Twin prices up :blast
 
As has already been said there will alsays be a market for the top end stuff but some of the prices being asked/paid for basic bread and butter brit stuff look unsustainable to me. My mate has just bought a Firestorm in nice condition with 15k miles for £2k. That to me is a far better option but each to their own.

I've just done the same thing, mind you it may take 10 years to get my money back, cheap to buy, cheap to run and hopefully good to ride once I sort the rectifier out
 


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