Your chances of seeing the aurora increase as you move north, solar flares that occur near the middle of the Sun as viewed from earth spew out charged matter that takes about 72 hours to reach earth
Look at space.com weather and you will see sunspots rotate with the sun, these increase and decrease in size
Spaceweather
Sunspot number 1391 is an obvious one to watch
Geomagnetic activity is monitored by Magnetometers here on earth
http://www.irf.se/Observatory/?link[Magnetometers]=Data/
When the chart swings minus and reads from about -500nt its time to start observing, this figure can quickly drop to -1000nt or more
A 3 hourly updated K index shows the level of activity, you need it to be at least 4, 5 to 6 is intense, its low at the moment at 2 so no risk of visible aurora down here though it would be farther north like say at Tromso in northern Norway
Auroral oval around Antarctic
Aurorae extend way beyond earth to Neptune, Jupiter and here at Saturn
Aurora Buddy is an excellent free smartphone app, available for the Iphone (crap-phone) too
(VHH in previous post should read VHF)