Yep, thats my guess too - as I say there is some anecdotal evidence comments out there that this is not an isolated incident, -nor is it common either.
While im here, the other thing I forgot to mention is that it has needed an "ECU reset" 3 times- once I was unaware of any issue and the dealer said he had done one, the next two times manifested itself with the bike just not running right - odd misfire for no reason and pop backs thru the throttle bodies. ECU reset seemed to sort it for a while and then the symptoms eventually re-appeared - that said at the time I didn't really consider it an issue, just a normal event, wasn't really a problem as such. Other owners have told me "they all do that" which I suspect they might....
You need to make your mind up. The africa twin is completely different to the cb500x. There are cb500x bikes on 200k though. Also the 22 bikes are a notable improvement on 19/20