Sept 2024: Galibier & Iseran passes closed due to weather

weather forecast is snow overnight and tomorrow with sub zero temperatures

Wow.Been there before even in October and it’s been fine.
But this last week has not been hot.
In the Picos the temperature only reached about 18 degrees and riding back through France it peaked at about 22 in Rochefort.
I’ve done a September trip for years and it’s often been over 30 degrees in the south.
So I can imagine it’ll be sub zero at 8000 ft amsl quite easily , as the adiabatic lapse rate is about 2 degs per 1000 feet.
 
Wow.Been there before even in October and it’s been fine.
But this last week has not been hot.
In the Picos the temperature only reached about 18 degrees and riding back through France it peaked at about 22 in Rochefort.
I’ve done a September trip for years and it’s often been over 30 degrees in the south.
So I can imagine it’ll be sub zero at 8000 ft amsl quite easily , as the adiabatic lapse rate is about 2 degs per 1000 feet.

I've been reading reports of a chap heading to the Dolomites and he spent a few days in Oberdrauberg in Austria and has had some horrendous weather there. He has moved to somewhere just east of Trento and has had better weather.

I've been to Spain/Portugal four times in late Sept/Oct in recent years. 43C in Porto was the highest but often in the 30s except one year, 2022 I think, when it was often cold and wet. I recall being in the sun in Potes in mid 20s and then about 5C on top of San Glorio in a howling gale. I abandoned two mountain routes that year due to low cloud and the ferry was late home due to a storm, so had to ride home from Plymouth in the dark in heavy rain. Going in May next year.
 
Weathers definitely messed up this year. The foto below was taken 3rd October last year, the temp was high 20’s by lunchtime.
 

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We left Chamonix two days ago and the bloke I had been trail riding with said Chamonix was forecast for 0° before the weekend. That was at valley level.
Currently on a campsite on Il de Re and glorious sunshine and around 22-23°.
 
I’ve been watching the weather models for a bit now to get away to the Dolomites, Balkans and beyond from early September. The jet stream has been really weird and way south with the result being no real period of stable weather there and mix that with end of summer energy and it’s a perfect storm. I fear big floods this week and +100cm of snow higher up.

I know not to go to the mountains when it’s like that. Maybe May will be better.
 
Snow down to 1000m and possibly as low as 700.


Up to 3m of snow forecast.

‘During the last 200 years, how many times has there been heavy snow in these areas by mid-September? Probability functions for weather events have long tails.’
Does that mean shit ?
3m of snow forecast.
We’ll know tomorrow , because the Garmisch forecast is that the ground will see no more daylight from Friday till next Summer .
 


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