Weather forecasts...

[Wile E Coyote]

What's the best web site to use for accurate weather forecasts in Europe, we're heading to the Picos and surrounding area at the weekend and I'm having a bit of a 'mare trying to find a decent localized 7 day forecast site so we can avoid the rain....

Cheers

 

[cookie]

An accurate 7 day localised forecast for a mountain region is something of a tall order IME.

You're going anyway. You might get wet, you might not.

 

[mrsroynie]

An accurate 7 day localised forecast for a mountain region is something of a tall order IME.

You're going anyway. You might get wet, you might not.

Agreed. We live in the Pyrenees when we're not in Co. Clare, so we see a lot of rain ...

I use Accuweather. You can type in your location/destination and get a forecast for more or less anywhere. There is a sister site for the UK & Ireland.

 

[drimcong]

wunderground.com

Llanes

 

[Wile E Coyote]

Thank you, the Accuweather site looks ideal, and Cookie thank you for that pearl of wisdom, I am aware of course that it may rain in the mountains but with all these people dedicating their working life to try to help us avoid the nasty stuff it would be rude not to listen to them, of course I may still get wet but if I can ride around the rain then I will.

 

[cookie]

You may find you are able to ride around a localised area of rain. IME (fair. Summer and winter) it can be raining in one valley, but not in the next.

If you think such things can be predicted 7 days in advance, you're dreaming. I'm in the alps now, and the previous day's forecast has been hours out every day.

 

[Wile E Coyote]

Cookie, do I really need to point out that I know weather cannot be accurately predicted especially in the mountains and I am fully aware that it is not a precise science. I was actually looking for simple helpful comments such as the web sites posted which are very useful when planning a route.

If I'd have wanted to know that 'I might get wet but I might not' I would have asked this guy...!!

 

[Rasher]

I find the forecasts are generally less accurate than the UK ones if your looking more than a day or two ahead.

Many Hotels put the 3-day forecast up on a wall, or have local papers that often have a forecast on the back, if all else fails just ask.

I tend to have a prefered route and a backup route (or two) planned for each day and then swap them around to suit the conditions.

When staying in one place for a few nights I often put together a collection of routes for between 1 and 4 hours so if the day is looking dodgy I can just pop out if we get an opportunity.

 

[cookie]

Cookie, do I really need to point out that I know weather cannot be accurately predicted especially in the mountains

I think you do. you're asking for seven day mountain forecasts to plan riding around the rain. That is at total odds with your above post.

I pointed out that any forecast is likely to be very unreliable. I thought that might help, apparently not.

You ask for advice, you don't like it. Get wet, stay dry. Who fucking cares? Not me.

 

[Wapping]

You asked for accurate weather forecasts:

Look out of the window the on the morning of the days you are there*. Back it up by looking at the local TV and / or the back of a local newspaper for an only slightly more scientific approach.






*I realise this method is not actually a prediction, more of a confirmation. But, at least it is reliable, unless you are looking the wrong way.

 

[(RIP) Ewan]

Forecasting the weather in the mountains is a lot like forecasting the weather in Scotland, and can be done with 100% accuracy.

Look out of the window. If you can't see the hills, it's raining. If you can see the hills, it's going to rain. Simples!

 

[John Armstrong]

Forecasting the weather in the mountains is a lot like forecasting the weather in Scotland, and can be done with 100% accuracy.

Look out of the window. If you can't see the hills, it's raining. If you can see the hills, it's going to rain. Simples!

Works for many other places too

Or, the technical modern approach is to use the various rainfall radar sites to get an idea where there might be rain (that shows up on the radar )

 

[Poley]

I don't think weather radar is much use for forecasting more than the next few hours. Sat24 has a good moving photo which will show you radar images for the last 2 hours, which you can use to get an idea of the immediate trends, and spot any potential approaching clouds (or gaps in the clouds, if it's already raining).

I use Weather Online for most of my forecasting. If you look at their Expert Charts section (here's one for the rain in Spain ) you can find forecasts for up to 384 hours (about 2 weeks) ahead - though I wouldn't pay too much attention to the forecast at that range.

As others have said, 7-day forecasts are not terribly reliable. One trick to gauge the accuracy is to watch how the forecast for the day(s) in question changes over several days. If the forecast remains reasonably consistent, it means that the computer model used to create the prediction is fairly confident. If the forecast is inconsistent, it means that the model is undecided about what's brewing and the forecast is less reliable.

You can use the Weather Online site to look at how consistent the forecast has been. In weather-geek speak, a "model run" is a forecast at a certain time (they run a computer program based on the software model, and the forecast is based on the output of the model run.)

On the WO site you can actually change the base model run to see how consistent the forecast has been. They publish an updated forecast every 6 hours, but they display historical forecasts as well. In fact, by selecting Base=all you can easily view the forecast history. For example, here's the forecast history for Tuesday 23rd, most recent forecasts at the top. Pretty much all the model runs since last Friday have predicted light rain over NW Spain, so the model seems fairly confident about it, and I would therefore count on it.

Of course, in mountainous regions there are all sorts of other factors like microclimates, whether you are on the windward or leeward side of the hills (usually more rain upwind of hills) etc, hence forecasts are likely to be of general use only ("I might head North up to the coast" vs "I might head South" vs "I might stay in and keep dry").

 

[JohnnyBoxer]

Cookie, do I really need to point out that I know weather cannot be accurately predicted especially in the mountains and I am fully aware that it is not a precise science. I was actually looking for simple helpful comments such as the web sites posted which are very useful when planning a route.

If I'd have wanted to know that 'I might get wet but I might not' I would have asked this guy...!!

That's a bit strong

If you're worried about rain in the mountains................best stay home

 

[(RIP) Johno23]

meteo france

 

[(RIP) 163phil]

This is what we use in the gliding fraternity, http://www.weatherjackwx.co.uk/

All the links you'd ever want, but for weather abroad, a good starting point is Animation Meteogroup, under rainfall radar. Met office charts give a good general synopsis, and Sat24 is excellent for up-to-date satellite pics.