What is the New/Used GS situation going to be like?

[Reggie353]

Are we going to have an over supply of new bikes because nobody was buying during lockdown, and an under supply of used bikes because everybody is holding on to there’s due to the uncertainty.

Just thinking if your trade in will be worth more and you’ll get a discount off a new GS?


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[Davey B]

I presume they shut down manufacturing for some time so there won't be a stock of new bikes, will there ?

 

[Alan R]

Another as yet intangible consideration - will there be an increased number of pcp financed bikes hitting the dealerships as people who have suffered reduced circumstances due to covid 19 have to reduce their outgoings?
Alan R

 

[Santa-2512]

I presume they shut down manufacturing for some time so there won't be a stock of new bikes, will there ?

Nothing has really changed,

The shutdown's were pretty much give or take a few weeks toghether.

so you couldnt buy a bike, go to the dealers, as they, you & the manufacturer were shut down.

When i had the GS serviced, the dealers said they couldnt get enough new bikes to sell, they were selling 25- 50 a month near on blind.

So new bikes are healthy, the SH market is different, with high demand for used models

now that can be seen both ways, better prices for the seller & reseller , but not for the end buyers

 

[spoonz]

The motorcycle industry is predicted to shrink 47% over the year. It dropped 64% in April alone. Almost without exception there are incentives across the board be it 0% finance, discounts etc so it’s a good time to buy. Volumes are being driven by discount more than demand.

As for oversupply I suspect not much, at least not for European marques. BMW shut many of their factories long before we had lock down here. Some of the Bmw factories only re opened on the 16th of this month so no huge stock has built up. The incentives are more about shifting inventory in the shortened season before 2021 models are released which for some marques is only just over 2 months away.

Some makes also need to shift stock before the euro 5 extension ceases on jan 1st, unless it gets extended again, otherwise they have to pre register them or rely on derogation and sell at even bigger discounts. You can walk into an Aprilia dealer today and probably get £2k off any V4 without even haggling

 

[Traffic893]

Given my mates recent experience with BMW, and trading in his XR,I would say deals won’t be abundant.
His 3yr old XR on PCP, excellent condition well under the mileage and he’s been told it probably won’t even be valued at the bubble payment value of just over 8k, and he was looking at a new XR.
Not much motivation by BMW to sell him one so he’s looking at Triumph and Kawasaki now.

 

[spoonz]

Given my mates recent experience with BMW, and trading in his XR,I would say deals won’t be abundant.
His 3yr old XR on PCP, excellent condition well under the mileage and he’s been told it probably won’t even be valued at the bubble payment value of just over 8k, and he was looking at a new XR.
Not much motivation by BMW to sell him one so he’s looking at Triumph and Kawasaki now.

That’s the rub, currently dealers generally want to reduce inventory so trade ins are less desirable to them than a straight sale. If your in a position to do it the best bet is too take the discounts of a straight sale and sell on your old bike yourself. Several friends have gone that route but it took them a few months to move on their bikes.

 

[Schtum]

His 3yr old XR on PCP, excellent condition well under the mileage and he’s been told it probably won’t even be valued at the bubble payment value of just over 8k, and he was looking at a new XR.

He needs to take them to task on this. The terms of his PCP will include a Guaranteed Future Value, providing he hasn't exceeded the agreed mileage and that the bike is in good condition. I suggest that he reads his contract.

 

[Rushy]

The motorcycle industry is predicted to shrink 47% over the year. It dropped 64% in April alone.

Is that the industry as a whole or new bike registrations. Can I ask where you read that ?

 

[Weird Bob]

My guess based on no knowledge whatsoever (proper ukgser style) that they will produce enough for current orders and a few extra for sales floors before prepping for next years model.
If I was them I wouldn’t want an abundance of stock hanging around particularly with further possible restrictions and lockdowns in the future.

I am sure there are a good chunk of people like myself who used their bike for commuting who aren’t racking up the miles anymore. They may hang onto the bike for another year or swap for something that is just about fun.

Even the recreation only riders won’t, in general, get to rack up the miles they normally would.

 

[Traffic893]

He needs to take them to task on this. The terms of his PCP will include a Guaranteed Future Value, providing he hasn't exceeded the agreed mileage and that the bike is in good condition. I suggest that he reads his contract.

Valid point. Will pass that on.

 

[Rushy]

Given my mates recent experience with BMW, and trading in his XR,I would say deals won’t be abundant.
His 3yr old XR on PCP, excellent condition well under the mileage and he’s been told it probably won’t even be valued at the bubble payment value of just over 8k, and he was looking at a new XR.
Not much motivation by BMW to sell him one so he’s looking at Triumph and Kawasaki now.

He needs to take them to task on this. The terms of his PCP will include a Guaranteed Future Value, providing he hasn't exceeded the agreed mileage and that the bike is in good condition. I suggest that he reads his contract.

This sounds a bit like Chinese whispers to me. I think you are saying "the bubble payment" is the final payment ? And that will be more than the trade in value of the bike then that's possible, it could well be worth less than that to the dealer. But as Schtum says the bike has a GFV written into its contract so he can just hnd it back and that pays of the 0/S finance .

Its possible that he was hoping that it would be worth more than the GFV as a trade in to the dealer and he'd then have a bit of a deposit to put towards the new bike.The dealer is maybe valuing the bike at less than GFV so he won't have some extra bunce to put back into the new bike.

 

[spoonz]

Is that the industry as a whole or new bike registrations. Can I ask where you read that ?

Via motorcycle data, it’s the industry reduction in sales volume worldwide, not registrations. India being the worlds biggest market will be a decent chunk. I think Europe wise for first quarter, France was down 13%, Italy 11% which seems to be a Europe trend but April and May were dire for obvious reasons.

China is seeing a bounce so I suspect they are hoping for similar trendS here Into late 2020 and 2021 assuming we don’t get second spikes etc.

 

[spoonz]

U.K. stats

British Motorcycles Market fell down 84% in April and 50% in May with the worst performance in the continent, and is surfing the deepest quarter in a century. The combined effects of Covid19 and Brexit have started one of the darkest period for our industry in the United Kingdom and the full year 2020 two-wheeler sales are expected at 79.000 (-26%).

2020 & 2021 Motorcycles Market Data & Outlook

Following the recent year steady pathway, the British motorcycles industry started the 2020 with a moderately positive speed in January (+2.8%) and February (+3.0%), before to fall down in March (-21.6%) and in April (-84%) when the spread of Covid19 forced the people to stay home and shut down activities (but unfortunately only since March 19th the Government started following the World Health Organization route).

Unfortunately the delay to take concrete actions against the pandemy will be paid heavily by the country and while the rest of Europe is near to have all economic activities reopened, while under new and safety conditions, the UK is still in partial shutdown and re-opening could be in July.

While the rest of Europe is already recovering, the motorcycles industry in UK was still in the nightmare in May with sales at 5.395 units, down 50.4%, the worst results in the continent., with year to date figures at 30.838 (-35.5%)

Starting in the Q3 the year-on-year decline will moderate but anyhow the 2020 will end at 79.000 units (-26%) and the recovery will not start before the second quarter 2021.

The combined effects of Covid19 and Brexit have started one of the darkest period for our industry in the United Kingdom.

 

[Davey B]

So new bikes are healthy, the SH market is different, with high demand for used models

now that can be seen both ways, better prices for the seller & reseller , but not for the end buyers

Given my mates recent experience with BMW, and trading in his XR,I would say deals won’t be abundant.
His 3yr old XR on PCP, excellent condition well under the mileage and he’s been told it probably won’t even be valued at the bubble payment value of just over 8k, and he was looking at a new XR.
Not much motivation by BMW to sell him one so he’s looking at Triumph and Kawasaki now.

Somethings amiss here. I wonder if dealers are shooting themselves in the foot IF they try to shaft peoples trade in values. Their current business model seems firmly based on PCP and ongoing repeat sales...with employment uncertainty I can see riders buying outright and/or keeping bikes for a bit longer.